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Öğe Determinants of Trade in Latin American Countries(Kütahya Dumlupinar Üniversitesi, 2024) Saglam, Yagmur; Sönmez, Filiz EratasThe main purpose of this study is to determine the macroeconomic components of trade with a new method for Latin American Countries, taking into account the structural characteristics of the series. Because there are a few quantitative examples in the literature that have been studied with the Gravity model. In addition to macroeconomic variables, to determine the region's place in world trade, a variable representing commercial integration added to the model. In this regard, long-term coefficient estimation ran for ten selected Latin American countries using the dynamic panel data analysis method. According to the findings, while the unemployment rate and real interest rates negatively affect foreign trade, the main determinants of foreign trade in the long term are official exchange rates, binding tariffs and per capita national income, respectively. The two countries in the region that are best integrated in foreign trade are Mexico and Chile. Therefore, trade liberalization and integration are still a problem in this region and studies in this context need to be continued.Öğe DO EXPORT-LED GROWTH AND DOMESTIC DEMAND-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS MOVE TOGETHER IN THE WESTERN BALKANS?(Cenk AKSOY, 2021) Saglam, Yagmur; Egeli, HüseyinIn order to understand whether export and domestic demand-led growth hypotheses are moving together in the Western Balkans, Fourier Approach (unit root) and Hatemi-J causality tests are implemented for the annual data between 2000 and 2019. According to findings; it is stated that real gross domestic product consisting of net exports and domestic demand components is stationary even due to structural breaks and the two growth hypotheses are being carried out in a harmony. However, for each country, when Hatemi-J. causality test findings are examined, it is seen that the export-led growth hypothesis is accepted for Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia; but in Albania, on the other hand, no causality was found between net exports and domestic demand. In Croatia and Kosovo, both strategies work together, so there is a feedback relationship between net exports and domestic demand.Öğe FDI and Economic Growth in European Transition Economies: Panel Data Analysis(2017) Saglam, YagmurThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth based on 14 EuropeanTransition Economies for the period 1995 to 2014. Empirical model includes GDP per capita growth (% annual), foreign direct investment, net inflows(% GDP) and composite index which is developed with PCA to see the effect of determinants of FDI on GDP as an independent variable. Firstlyhomogeneity and cross sectional dependence among units are examined with Delta and CD LM tests and it is found that all series have heterogeneityand cross sectional dependency. For that reason, second generation Multifactor error structure (Pesaran et al, 2013) panel unit root test is used and itis also taken into account effect of unobserved common factors as a prerequisite of CCE Model just after proving the co-integration relationship andcausality between variables via of Durbin-Hausmann (Westerlund, 2008) co-integration and Dumetriscu-Hurlin (2012) causality tests. Obtained resultsstrongly support one-way causality from foreign direct investments and composite index to economic growth. Unfortunately, there is no causalitybetween foreign direct investments and composite index. The findings indicate that foreign direct investments contribute negatively to economic growthin contrast to theory points out but determinants of FDI contribute positively at European transition countries. The results show that in Albania, Latvia,Romania and Slovenia foreign direct investments and composite index have positive contributions to economic growth in contrast to Bulgaria, Bosniaand Herzegovina, Macedonia, Slovak Republic. Some countries have special and opposite situation. For example; in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary,Estonia and Lithuania FDI has negative coefficients but composite index has positive coefficients. Poland is the only exception for composite index hasnegative but FDI has positive contribution to the economic growth.Öğe Fisher Hipotezi’nin Fourier Yaklasimi ile Testi: Gelecek-11 Ülke Grubu Örnegi(Yasar University, 2018) Saglam, YagmurBu çalisma seçiliGelecek-11 ülkelerinde Fisher Hipotezi’nin varligini Fourier Yaklasimi ileanaliz etmektedir. Bu amaçla 1995-2016 yillarina ait yillik verilerinduraganligi Karul (2016) tarafindan gelistirilen kademeli kirilmali panel birimkök testi ile sorgulanmistir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Endonezya veFilipinlerde reel faiz orani birim kök içermektedir. O halde Fisher Hipotezi buiki ülke için reddedilmistir. Dolayisiyla beklenen enflasyon orani birebirnominal faiz oranlarina yansimamaktadir ve reel faiz oranini da etkilemektedir.Onun disinda seçili diger ülkelerde Fisher Hipotezi kabul edilmistir.Öğe Petrol Soklarinin Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerine Etkileri: OPEC Için Yapisal VAR Analizi(Istanbul Okan Üniversitesi, 2018) Saglam, Yagmur; Güresçi, GülçinBu çalismada Petrol Ihraç Eden Ülkeler (OPEC) için petrol fiyatlarinda meydana gelen degismelerin makroekonomik göstergeler üzerine etkisi arastirilmistir. Çalismada seçilen makroekonomik göstergeler petrol fiyat degismeleri yani sira bu dönemde yasanan birden fazla sokun etkisini de göstermesi açisindan önemlidir. Çalismada 1985-2015 dönemi için Yapisal VAR Analizi kullanilmistir. Bu model, yapisal model üzerine bir kisitlama getirmeksizin dinamik iliskileri tanimlamaktadir ve ayrica yapisal soklarin ayristirilmasina izin vermektedir. Bu çalisma ayni zamanda petrol fiyatlarinda meydana gelen degismelerin makroekonomik degiskenler üzerindeki etkisini kisa ve uzun dönem olarak ayristirabilmesi açisindan da önem arz etmektedir. Çünkü bu etkiler kisa ve uzun dönemde farklilasmaktadir. Çalismadan elde edilen bulgulara göre kisa dönem için yapilan yapisal VAR analizi sonucunda, kisa dönemde petrol fiyatlarindaki degisim ile seçili makroekonomik göstergeler arasinda pozitif yönlü iliski bulunmustur. Uzun dönemde ise petrol fiyatlari, makroekonomik göstergeler üzerinde farkli ve kalici etkilere sebebiyet vermektedir. Bu nedenle ekonomi politikasi öngörüleri bu farkliliklar göz önünde bulundurularak olusturulmalidir. Aksi takdirde uygulanan ekonomi politikalari istenen basariya ulasamayacaktirÖğe The effects of shocks on Turkish tourism demand: Evidence using panel unit root test(Sage Publications Ltd, 2021) Saglam, Yagmur; Ampountolas, ApostolosThis empirical study examines the stationarity of tourism demand in Turkey in response to the effects of structural breaks, which indicate external or internal shocks based on tourist arrivals from 12 Slavic-speaking countries between 2000 and 2016. We employed a panel unit root test based on the Flexible Fourier approach, which Karul enhanced to allow gradual shifts and a smooth transition process; structural break dates come from the Carrion-i-Silvestre unit root test framework. The empirical findings indicate that there are differences in the effects of these structural breaks across the 12 countries in question.Öğe The Nexus Between Tourism and Economic Growth: Case of Commonwealth of Independent States(Yusuf KARAKUS, 2018) Saglam, Yagmur; Egeli, H. AvniIn this study the relationship between tourism and economic growth examined with panel data analysis for the Commonwealth Independent States (Azerbaijan, Russian Federation, Ukraine, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan except Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – due to lack of data) for the period between 1995 and 2015. The data has been downloaded from World Bank Development Indicators with their natural logarithmic forms. At the empirical part of the study GDP per capita annual data (%) represents economic growth and international tourism receipts (of % total export) have been chosen as an indicator of tourism sector. The model has been tested with dynamic panel data analysis. Firstly preliminary tests have been applied to be sure about the the homogeneity of series (Delta test) and the cross-section depence (CDlm test) of each individuals. After that second generation unit root test (Hadri Kurozomi-2012) used to find out the level of stationary. Durbin-H co-integration test showed that there is co-integration between variables and finally Hurlin-Dumetriscu causality test (2012) does not support tourism-led growth hypothesis. So there is one-way causality from economic growth to tourism for selected countries.Öğe The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth for Developing Countries: Panel Causality Analysis(Sosyoekonomi Soc, 2019) Eratas-Sonmez, Filiz; Saglam, YagmurThe study aims to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in developing countries. In this context, an econometric model has been formed using the financial development index and economic growth variables. Due to the complex nature of the financial system, non-stationary panel data analysis is employed in the empirical model. In the long run, a one-way causality relationship from financial development to economic growth is observed. The findings are in line with the supply-driven approach, which argues for that financial development positively affects economic growth.Öğe The Relationship Between Financial Development And Economic Growth: Evidence From European Transition Economies(Eskisehir Osmangazi Univ, Fac Education, 2017) Saglam, Yagmur; Sonmez, Filiz EratasThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth, based on European transition economies. For this purpose we used Barro (1991) type growth model which claimed that finance is a key to economic growth. The model includes real gross domestic product (GDP) and composite index of financial development (FD). At the empirical model, scope of the panel data analysis, primarily the heterogeneity of variables were investigated and then the cross-section dependency was examined. Also, stability of the series was tested with the second-generation unit root tests. After the existence of the co-integration relationship between the series, long term regression parameters were examined. According to the empirical results, in the long term, it is expected that there is a one way relationship from financial development to growth.Öğe The Relationship between R&D Expenditures and Economic Growth for Some Developed and Developing Countries: A Panel Data Analysis(Sosyoekonomi Dernegi, 2017) Saglam, Yagmur; Egeli, Hüseyin Avni; Egeli, PinarThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between research and development (R&D) expenditures and economic growth, based on 26 some developed and developing countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Hungary, Latvia, Netherland, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, United Kingdom, Iceland, Norway). For this purpose, we used endogenous growth model of Romer (1990), which claims that technological change is the major source of productivity growth in the long run. Inthiscontext, usingannualdatawhich has taken from Eurostat; an empirical model has beendeveloped in the scope of the dynamic panel data analysis forth-period 1996- 2014. The model includes real gross domestic product per capita (GDPRC) and gross domestic expenditures on R&D as an indicator of technological change (innovation). At the empirical part, firstly heterogeneity of the variables were investigate during the Delta test (Pesaran ve Yamagata, 2008), and then the existence of dependency between cross-sectional units that make series were examined by the CADF and Hadri-Kurozumi tests. After proving cointegration between series with Westurlund ECM test; Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) and Emirmahmutoglu-Köse (2011) panel causality tests were applied. According to the empirical results, in the long term there is one way causal relationship from R&D expenditures to economic growth for some selected developed and developing countries.Öğe Toplumsal Bütünün Uzun Dönemli Yapilanisi ve Türkiye Ekonomisi(Hayrettin KESGINGÖZ, 2018) Saglam, YagmurToplumlarin kültürel veahlaki degerleri tarihsel süreçte ekonomik yapilarinin sekillenmesinde büyükrol oynamistir. Ilkel toplumdan tarim toplumuna veya sanayi toplumundan bilgitoplumuna geçis süreci her toplumda farkli zamanlarda ve düzeylerdeyasanmistir. Çalismada bilgi toplumuna geçis sürecinde Türkiye ekonomisininyapisal degisimini göz önüne alan bir degerlendirme yapilmistir. Türkiye’ninsanayilesme sürecinde teknolojinin içsellestirilmesi açisindan geri kalmisligive bilgi toplumu olma yolunda yasananlar tartisilmistir.
