Petrol Soklarinin Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerine Etkileri: OPEC Için Yapisal VAR Analizi
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Tarih
2018
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Istanbul Okan Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalismada Petrol Ihraç Eden Ülkeler (OPEC) için petrol fiyatlarinda meydana gelen degismelerin makroekonomik göstergeler üzerine etkisi arastirilmistir. Çalismada seçilen makroekonomik göstergeler petrol fiyat degismeleri yani sira bu dönemde yasanan birden fazla sokun etkisini de göstermesi açisindan önemlidir. Çalismada 1985-2015 dönemi için Yapisal VAR Analizi kullanilmistir. Bu model, yapisal model üzerine bir kisitlama getirmeksizin dinamik iliskileri tanimlamaktadir ve ayrica yapisal soklarin ayristirilmasina izin vermektedir. Bu çalisma ayni zamanda petrol fiyatlarinda meydana gelen degismelerin makroekonomik degiskenler üzerindeki etkisini kisa ve uzun dönem olarak ayristirabilmesi açisindan da önem arz etmektedir. Çünkü bu etkiler kisa ve uzun dönemde farklilasmaktadir. Çalismadan elde edilen bulgulara göre kisa dönem için yapilan yapisal VAR analizi sonucunda, kisa dönemde petrol fiyatlarindaki degisim ile seçili makroekonomik göstergeler arasinda pozitif yönlü iliski bulunmustur. Uzun dönemde ise petrol fiyatlari, makroekonomik göstergeler üzerinde farkli ve kalici etkilere sebebiyet vermektedir. Bu nedenle ekonomi politikasi öngörüleri bu farkliliklar göz önünde bulundurularak olusturulmalidir. Aksi takdirde uygulanan ekonomi politikalari istenen basariya ulasamayacaktir
In this study, the effects of changes in oil prices on the macroeconomic indicators for the Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) were investigated. Selected macroeconomic indicators in the study are important in terms of not only changing the price of oil but also showing the effect of more than one shock in this period. Structural VAR Analysis was used for the period 1985-2015. This model defines dynamic relationships without any restriction on the structural model and also allows structural shocks to be separated. This study is also important in terms of distinguishing the effects of changes in oil prices on macroeconomic variables as short and long term. Because these effects are different in the short and long term. According to empirical results of this study; in the short term changes in oil prices and selected macroeconomic indicators have a positive relationship. In the long term oil prices have been affected macroeconomic indicators structurally and seperately. For that reason the economic policy predictions should be based on these term differences. Otherwise, the implemented economic policies will not achieve the desired success
In this study, the effects of changes in oil prices on the macroeconomic indicators for the Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) were investigated. Selected macroeconomic indicators in the study are important in terms of not only changing the price of oil but also showing the effect of more than one shock in this period. Structural VAR Analysis was used for the period 1985-2015. This model defines dynamic relationships without any restriction on the structural model and also allows structural shocks to be separated. This study is also important in terms of distinguishing the effects of changes in oil prices on macroeconomic variables as short and long term. Because these effects are different in the short and long term. According to empirical results of this study; in the short term changes in oil prices and selected macroeconomic indicators have a positive relationship. In the long term oil prices have been affected macroeconomic indicators structurally and seperately. For that reason the economic policy predictions should be based on these term differences. Otherwise, the implemented economic policies will not achieve the desired success
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Yapisal VAR, OPEC, Petrol Soklari
Kaynak
Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
Sayı
640
