Future changes in drought characteristics in the Central Black Sea region of Türkiye using HadGEM2-ES climate models and the SPI

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dc.contributor.authorKurtoglu, Selcuk Erdem
dc.contributor.authorKeskin, Asli Ulke
dc.contributor.authorZeybekoglu, Utku
dc.date.accessioned2026-04-25T14:19:54Z
dc.date.available2026-04-25T14:19:54Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentSinop Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates future changes in meteorological drought characteristics in the Central Black Sea Region of T & uuml;rkiye (Tokat, & Ccedil;orum, Amasya, Ordu, and Samsun) for the period 2023-2080. Using precipitation projections from the HadGEM2-ES climate model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. The analysis reveals a reduction in the frequency of near-normal wet conditions, alongside a noticeable increase in the frequency and severity of dry periods, particularly in the inland provinces. Although some coastal areas are projected to receive more precipitation, drought conditions are still expected to intensify, reflecting complex regional responses to climate change. The results of this study are intended to support long-term water resource management, agricultural planning, and climate adaptation efforts in the region.
dc.description.sponsorshipSinop University
dc.description.sponsorshipThe meteorological data used in this manuscript were obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) for the master's thesis titled Drought Analysis of The Central Black Sea Region Within The Scope Of Climate Projections written by Selcuk Erdem Kurtoglu under the supervision of Asli Ulke Keskin. The authors thank the Turkish State Meteorological Service for providing the meteorological data. The authors also thank the reviewers for their constructive criticisms which have considerably improved this manuscript.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s12665-025-12391-1
dc.identifier.issn1866-6280
dc.identifier.issn1866-6299
dc.identifier.issue13
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9676-8377
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105008959721
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12391-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11486/8228
dc.identifier.volume84
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001517118800003
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Earth Sciences
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260420
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectGCM
dc.subjectProjection
dc.subjectPrecipitation
dc.titleFuture changes in drought characteristics in the Central Black Sea region of Türkiye using HadGEM2-ES climate models and the SPI
dc.typeArticle

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