Forecasting the Effect of Credit Utilization Rate on Inflation Volatility in Turkey
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Tarih
2024
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of credit utilization on inflation volatility in the context of commercial and consumer loans in Turkey, which is an example for developing countries. In the study, the relations between these two variables are tested for the 2005–2020 period in Turkey, which has been struggling with the inflation problem for many years. In this context, the effects of consumer and commercial loans used in Turkey, as well as consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rates on the volatility were examined by ARCH, GARCH, E-GARCH models. Consumer loan utilization rates it has been determined that inflation rates increase the volatility. In other words, it was concluded that the increase in the usage rate of consumer loans in Turkey in the mentioned period caused an inflationary effect on the consumer basis. Also, the utilization rate of commercial loans reduces the volatility of inflation rates. That means that the increase in the use of commercial loans increases the real money supply by decreasing the money demand in the economy. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
ARCH, Commercial loans, E-GARCH, GARCH, Individual loans, Inflations
Kaynak
Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Q4
Cilt
30
