Relationship between Mediterranean region temperatures and precipitation with atmospheric oscillations and ITA results

This study analyzes the relationship between precipitation and temperature data measured in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey from 1970 to 2022, and the Mediterranean Oscillation Indexes (MOI1 and MOI2) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In the study, correlation analyses and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods were applied using data from 24 meteorological observation stations in the region. As a result of the correlation analyses, it was determined that AO had a negative correlation with the precipitation data of all stations in the region. This situation shows that the increase in AO values reduces the amount of precipitation. While a generally negative relationship exists between MOI1 and precipitation from the two versions of MOI, a mostly positive relationship was determined between MOI2 and precipitation. However, statistically significant relationships were determined in some stations. When evaluated in terms of temperature, negative correlations were determined with MOI1, MOI2, and AO indices in all stations in the region. This situation shows that atmospheric oscillations effectively influence temperature changes and that fluctuations in temperature values may be mainly due to these atmospheric systems. When the ITA results were examined, a significant increasing trend in temperature data was observed. However, there was no stable increasing or decreasing trend in precipitation data. While an increasing trend was observed in small and medium-sized precipitation in the Western Mediterranean, a decreasing trend was observed in large precipitation. In the Eastern Mediterranean, changing trends were detected at different stations. These results reveal that the risk of drought may increase due to rising temperatures in the region, and strategic planning should be implemented for water resource management. As a result, the study's findings indicate that atmospheric oscillations, such as the Mediterranean Oscillation (MOI) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), significantly affect precipitation and temperature regimes in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey. The increase in temperature in the region may increase the pressure on water resources in the future and cause drought events to occur more frequently. In this context, reviewing regional water management policies and developing sustainable water use strategies is important.