BATI BALKANLAR VE AB DIS TICARETINE KONU MALLAR ÜZERINE AMPIRIK BIR ANALIZ
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Tarih
2021
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
PressAcademia
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Amaç - Bu makale Bati Balkanlar ve Avrupa Birligi (AB) arasinda ticareti analiz etmektedir.Metodoloji - Söz konusu mallarin ticaretinin analizinde (SITC mal gruplarini dikkate alarak - birincil mallar - imalat (üretilen) mallari - digermallar) 2002-2019 yillarini kapsayan bir dönem için Yapisal VAR yöntemi kullanilmistir.Bulgular - Elde edilen ampirik analiz bulgularina göre; SVAR sistemine ait sifir hipotezi ‘’AB ve Bati Balkanlar arasinda dis ticaret yoktur’’reddedilmektedir. Kisa dönemde degiskenler arasinda ayni yönde bir iliski oldugunu söyleyebilmek mümkündür. Uzun dönemde, ticaretdengesinde meydana gelecek bir birim standart hatalik içsel ya da dissal sok, diger degiskenler üzerine es-anli etkisini; birincil mallar içinbirinci dönemden itibaren, imalat mallari için üçüncü dönemden ve diger mallar için dördüncü dönemde itibaren birakmaktadir ve bu etkion dönemlik süreçte kalicidir.Sonuç - Imalat mallari üzerine gelecek bir sok ise hem ticaret dengesini ani ve negatif bir sekilde etkilerken, diger mallar ve birincil mallarüzerinde olumsuz ve kalici bir etkisi bulunmaktadir. Diger mallar da meydana gelen bir degisim ticaret dengesini önce olumlu daha sonraolumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. O halde en dissal degiskenden en içsel degiskene dogru SVAR sistemi elemanlarini siralayacak olursak;birincil mallar, imalat mallari diger mallar ve ticaret dengesidir.
Purpose - This article provides an analysis about trade (balance)relations between EU and the Western Balkans.Methodology - Structural Vector Autoregression System is used according to SITC product groups (primary goods - manufactured goods andother goods) during 2002 and 2019.Findings - Findings of empirical analysis show that the null hypothesis of SVAR model ‘’There is no foreign trade between the EU and theWestern Balkan’’ is rejected. For the short-term there is a positive relationship between variables. In the long term; if internal or externalshocks on trade balance have simultaneous permanent effects on other variables; from the first period on primary goods, from the thirdperiod on manufactured goods and from the fourth period on other goods over a ten periods.Conclusion - A shock to manufactured goods has a negative and permanent effect on both other goods and primary goods. It affects thebalance of trade in a sudden and negative way. A change occurring in other goods affects the trade balance first positively and thennegatively. So if we sort the SVAR system elements from the most exogenous variable to the most endogeneous variable; primary goods,manufactured goods, other goods and trade balance.
Purpose - This article provides an analysis about trade (balance)relations between EU and the Western Balkans.Methodology - Structural Vector Autoregression System is used according to SITC product groups (primary goods - manufactured goods andother goods) during 2002 and 2019.Findings - Findings of empirical analysis show that the null hypothesis of SVAR model ‘’There is no foreign trade between the EU and theWestern Balkan’’ is rejected. For the short-term there is a positive relationship between variables. In the long term; if internal or externalshocks on trade balance have simultaneous permanent effects on other variables; from the first period on primary goods, from the thirdperiod on manufactured goods and from the fourth period on other goods over a ten periods.Conclusion - A shock to manufactured goods has a negative and permanent effect on both other goods and primary goods. It affects thebalance of trade in a sudden and negative way. A change occurring in other goods affects the trade balance first positively and thennegatively. So if we sort the SVAR system elements from the most exogenous variable to the most endogeneous variable; primary goods,manufactured goods, other goods and trade balance.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
SVAR, panel veri analizi, Avrupa Birligi, Bati Balkanlar, ticaret dengesi
Kaynak
PressAcademia Procedia
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
14
Sayı
1
