Inflation, Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade: Long And Short Run Relationships In The Turkish Economy

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.contributor.authorÇakmaklı, Bahadır Murat
dc.date.accessioned2026-04-25T14:11:24Z
dc.date.available2026-04-25T14:11:24Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentSinop Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractInflation, exchange rate, imports, exports and GDP per capita are key indicators that play a key role in assessing the health and stability of a country's economy. Inflation directly affects price stability and purchasing power, while the exchange rate has a significant impact on international trade and capital flows. Imports and exports reflect an economy's trade balance and competitiveness, while GDP per capita is an important indicator of economic growth and welfare. Understanding the relationships between these variables is of great importance for the effective design of economic policies. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationships between inflation, exchange rate, imports, exports and GDP per capita in the Turkish economy between 1994 and 2023 and to reveal how these variables affect each other and their long-run equilibrium relationships. In this context, the study examines the long-run relationships between the variables using the Johansen Co-integration Test and analyzes the short-run dynamics with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings of the study show that there are long run cointegration relationships between exchange rate and imports, exports and GDP per capita. However, no significant cointegration relationship was found between inflation and exchange rate and exchange rate and exports. This can be explained by the fact that inflation is affected by structural problems and exogenous shocks, while exports are dependent on global demand conditions and imports. Short-run dynamics reveal that exchange rate fluctuations increase import costs, while there is a bidirectional causality relationship between exports and GDP per capita.
dc.identifier.doi10.55065/intraders.1660803
dc.identifier.endpage19
dc.identifier.issn2667-4408
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.startpage1
dc.identifier.trdizinid1331527
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.55065/intraders.1660803
dc.identifier.urihttps://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/1331527
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11486/7836
dc.identifier.volume8
dc.indekslendigikaynakTR-Dizin
dc.institutionauthorÇakmaklı, Bahadır Murat
dc.language.isoen
dc.relation.ispartofIntraders international trade academic journal (Online)
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Ulusal Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_TR_20260420
dc.subjectİktisat
dc.titleInflation, Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade: Long And Short Run Relationships In The Turkish Economy
dc.typeArticle

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