EPIDEMIC SPREAD ANALYSIS IN SOCIAL COMMUNICATION NETWORKS WITH SIR MODEL

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dc.contributor.authorAlisan, Yigit
dc.contributor.authorIlhan, Nagehan
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-23T18:54:58Z
dc.date.available2025-03-23T18:54:58Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentSinop Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractCompartmental mathematical models are frequently used in epidemiology. These types of models rely on some assumptions, such as the homogeneity of the society and the equal contact ratio of everyone, to model real-life events mathematically. In real life, due to the heterogeneous nature of the social network that constitutes society, the contact rates and contact times of individuals vary. In sudden and new types of epidemics, solutions such as vaccines to slow down or end epidemics may be limited. In such cases, it becomes more important to use limited resources with maximum efficiency. In this study, the estimation results of disease spread in homogeneous and heterogeneous population structures were compared using the SIR compartment model. The dataset obtained from the science gallery in Dublin in 2009 was used to illustrate the heterogeneous community structure in real life. In the exhibition, the spread of the disease was simulated when individuals with different degrees of centrality in the network formed by the visitors who made face-to-face contacts were immunized. When the results obtained are compared, in the case of vaccination of individuals with high betweenness centrality, the spread of infection occurs 14,39% less than the homogeneous network structure accepted in SIR models.
dc.description.abstractEpidemiyoloji alaninda kompartiman tipi matematiksel modellerden siklikla yararlanilmaktadir. Bu tip modellerin birçogu, gerçek hayattaki olaylari matematiksel olarak modelleyebilmek amaciyla, toplumun homojen yapida oldugu ve her bireyin temas oraninin esit oldugu gibi bazi varsayimlar üzerine kurulur. Gerçek hayatta ise toplumu olusturan sosyal agin heterojen yapida olmasi nedeniyle bireylerin temas oranlari ve temas süreleri farklilik göstermektedir. Ani ve yeni tip salginlarda asi gibi salginlari yavaslatacak yada sonlandiracak çözümler sinirli olabilmektedir. Bu tip durumlarda sinirli kaynaklari maksimum verim ile kullanmak daha önemli hale gelmektedir. Yapilan çalismada, SIR kompartiman modeli kullanilarak, homojen ve heterojen toplum yapisindaki hastalik yayilimi tahmin sonuçlari karsilastirilmistir. Gerçek hayattaki heterojen toplum yapisini örneklemek amaciyla 2009 yilinda Dublin’deki bilim galerisini ziyaret eden ve yüz yüze temaslarda bulunan sergi ziyaretçilerine ait veri seti kullanilarak, agdaki farkli merkeziyet derecelerine sahip bireylerin bagisiklik kazanmasi durumunda hastalik yayilimi simüle edilmistir. Elde edilen sonuçlar karsilastirildiginda, arasindalik merkezilik degeri yüksek olan bireylerin asilanmasi durumunda enfeksiyon yayilimi SIR modellerinde kabul edilen homojen ag yapisina göre % 14,39 daha az gerçeklesmektedir.
dc.identifier.doi10.46810/tdfd.1239359
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.46810/tdfd.1239359
dc.identifier.endpage47
dc.identifier.issn2149-6366
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.startpage40
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11486/2387
dc.identifier.volume12
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherBingöl Üniversitesi
dc.relation.ispartofTurkish Journal of Nature and Science
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Ulusal Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_DergiPark_20250323
dc.subjectgraph
dc.subjectepidemiology
dc.subjectcloseness
dc.subjectbetweenness
dc.subjectsir model
dc.titleEPIDEMIC SPREAD ANALYSIS IN SOCIAL COMMUNICATION NETWORKS WITH SIR MODEL
dc.title.alternativeSIR MODELI ILE SOSYAL ILETISIM AGLARINDA SALGIN YAYILIM ANALIZI
dc.typeArticle

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