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    Describing of central banks’ monetary policy in the context to linear and nonlinear taylor rule: the case of Turkey
    (Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2022) altunöz, utku
    This study analyzes whether the original and expanded Taylor rules are valid in determining policy interest rates, which are used as the main instrument of monetary policy by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which has adopted the inflation targeting regime. In this context, the validity of the original and extended Taylor rules for the 2000–2020 period is analyzed econometrically within the scope of linear and nonlinear time series analysis. According to the results obtained, the Taylor rule is valid in the analysis periods with respect to inflation, production, and foreign currency shortage. These results show that monetary policy strategies are designed within the original and expanded Taylor rules and that money market policy interest rates are determined by considering the changes in inflation, production, and foreign currency shortage. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
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    How uncertain is the fed’s forward guidance? text-based evidence from earnings calls and corporate investment
    (Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2026) altunöz, utku
    This study investigates the impact of receiver-side forward-guidance uncertainty (FGU) on corporate investment in the United States. Using over 80,000 earnings-call transcripts from S&P 1500 firms between 2010Q1 and 2025Q2, we employ FinBERT—a finance-specific large language model—to construct a novel firm-quarter FGU index that captures managerial perceptions of Federal Reserve policy signals. We estimate panel fixed-effects and instrumental-variable models to address endogeneity concerns, finding that a one-standard-deviation increase in lagged FGU reduces the capital-expenditure-to-assets ratio by 0.6–0.9 percentage points, with stronger effects among financially constrained and interest-rate-sensitive firms. Robustness checks, alternative specifications, and dynamic local projections confirm the persistent and economically significant drag on investment. Translating firm-level elasticities to aggregate terms, an interquartile FGU rise implies a USD 12 billion quarterly reduction in U.S. nonresidential private investment. Our findings underscore that clarity, consistency, and credibility in central-bank communication are critical for sustaining real-sector investment. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.