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    Exchange rate regimes as thresholds: The main determinants of capital inflows in emerging market economies
    (Elsevier, 2023) Ozmen, Erdal; Tasdemir, Fatma
    We investigate whether the impacts of the main push (global financial conditions, GFC) and pull (growth) factors on capital inflows are invariant to endogenously estimated thresholds for exchange rate regimes (ERRs) in emerging market economies. The impact of GFC is higher under more flexible ERRs for aggregate capital and portfolio inflows. FDI inflows are determined by growth. The sensitivity of aggregate and other investment inflows to growth is higher under more rigid ERRs. Our results also suggest that managed ERRs encourage capital inflows by allowing countries to import the monetary policy credibility of the anchored country and to provide an exchange rate guarantee. Copyright (c) 2023 Borsa Istanbul Anonim S,irketi. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
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    Globalisation and governance: Thresholds for the impacts of the main determinants of capital inflows?
    (Elsevier, 2024) Ozmen, Erdal; Tasdemir, Fatma
    This paper investigates whether the impacts of the main push (global financial conditions, GFC) and pull (growth) factors on capital inflows are invariant to endogenously estimated threshold levels for structural domestic conditions (SDC) represented by governance, trade openness, de facto international financial integration and de jure financial openness in emerging market and developing economies. Our results strongly suggest that, for all the components of capital inflows, the impact of the domestic pull factor is substantially much higher for the episodes of better governance, higher trade, de jure financial openness and de facto international financial integration. The sensitivity of non-FDI and aggregate inflows to GFC tends to be considerably higher for the episodes of better SDC. FDI inflows are found to be basically determined by the domestic pull factor across all these regimes. The impact of GFC on FDI inflows appears not to considerably change across the SDC.
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    Globalisation, Financialisation and Endogenous Thresholds for Premature Deindustrialisation
    (Wiley, 2024) Ozcelik, Seda Ekmen; Ozmen, Erdal; Tasdemir, Fatma
    We investigate the pattern and determinants of premature deindustrialisation (PD) for a large panel of advanced, emerging and developing economies. We consider the impacts of international financial integration (de facto financial globalisation), capital account openness (de jure financial globalisation) and financialisation which are often neglected by the literature along with the conventional determinants of industrialisation. The recent literature often employs conventional fixed-effects panel data estimation procedures to estimate and test the postulated inverted-U relationship between manufacturing value-added share in GDP and real income. We employ non-parametric kernel regression to identify the pattern between these variables. In addition, this study analyses the determinants of industrialisation not only by employing the generalised method of moments procedure but also the recent methods allowing to estimate endogenous thresholds. In this context, we also examine whether income and globalisation provide endogenous thresholds for the effect of income on the processes of industrialisation and PD for our samples.
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    Gross capital inflows and outflows: Twins or distant cousins?
    (Elsevier, 2021) Ozmen, Erdal; Tasdemir, Fatma
    We investigate the long-run relations and equilibrium correction mechanisms between gross capital inflows, outflows and global financial conditions for advanced (AE) and emerging market economies (EME). According to our results, the puzzling findings of the recent literature suggesting that domestic and foreign investors act as distant cousins, leading to capital inflows and outflows to act as twins, tend to be supported for the long run. The short-run relations, however, often appear to be consistent with the conventional theory suggesting that the behaviors of residents and non-residents do not systematically diverge from each other. Consistent with flight to safety concerns, capital outflows from EME and capital inflows to AE tend to increase in the long run in response to worsening global financial conditions. We find that these results essentially hold for the main components of capital flows as well.