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    ADAPTABILITY OF THE INTEREST RATE TO THE INCOME AND INFLATION LEVEL OF THE ECONOMY: AN ALAYSIS OF THE TAYLOR RULE FOR TURKISH ECONOMY
    (Mehmet Akif Ersoy Univ, 2019) Altunoz, Utku
    One of the main target of central banks is to ensure price stability. The fight against inflation has an important place in reaching this aim. Especially central banks targeting inflation target use interest rates as the main tool. In this way, they decide how to change the interest rates in line with the targets they specify. Taylor Rule is a reduced version of the nominal interest rate determined by the central bank to respond to changes in inflation, output or other economic conditions. In this paper, it has been tried to determine whether the optimal monetary policy is determined based on the rules of production, inflation and exchange rate variables for the period of 2004: 01-2016: 10 in the light of Taylor Rule. Taylor Rule is analyzed in two model frameworks that the model in which the interest rates are determined according to the production deficit and the deviation of inflation from target and the model in which the interest rate of the central bank, which is a kind of open economy version of this model, is determined according to the production deficit, deviation of inflation from target and exchange rate deficit. As a result of study, it has been applied that Central Bank implicitly rule-based monetary policy regime within the framework of the Taylor rule with the switch of inflation targeting regime.
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    Analysis of Triple Deficit in Turkey in the Context of Current Account and Budget Deficits, and Savings-Investment Gap
    (Maliye Bakanligi, 2018) Altunoz, Utku
    In the literature, there has been a significant increase in the number of studies examining triple deficit which indicates that savings deficit coexists with the budget deficit and current account deficit that are monitored under the twin deficit - which has also been widely researched. After providing the theoretical background of twin and triple deficits and literature review, triple deficit hypothesis was tested for Turkey over the period of 2001: 12017: 3. The results prove that the variables are co-integrated in the short-and long-run. According to the results, there is a bilateral causal relationship between investment-savings disparity and budget deficit variables. Similarly, there is a two-way causal relationship between investment-savings disparity and current account deficit, as well as between budget deficit and current account deficit.
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    Investigating the Presence of Fisher Effect for the China Economy
    (Sosyoekonomi Soc, 2018) Altunoz, Utku
    In economic science, Fisher effect is known as the long run relationship between interest rates and inflation rates. According to Fisher, when economy at the full employment, increase in inflation is fully reflects to the nominal interest rates. Fisher equation is used to formulate the relationship between inflation and interest rates. Equation stands out the evidence about money growing, inflation and rates. In this study, the validity of fisher effect for China was tested over the period 1996: 01 2015: 03, the long run relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate was examined by using ARDL Bounds Testing Approach which was developed by Peseran et al. Before ARDL, theoretical background of Fisher Effect was explained. Following the literature survey, stationary situations were tested by Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. After that Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Bounds Test was applied on variables. According to result of study, the presence of fisher effect in China was supported.
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    Nonlinear and asymetric pass-through effect of crude oil prices onto the inflation
    (Wiley, 2022) Altunoz, Utku
    This paper examines pass-through of crude oil prices on consumer prices index (CPI) and producer prices index (PPI) in Turkey in the augmented Phillips curve context by applying ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and NARDL (non-linear ARDL) models. The results show that the effects of volatility in crude oil prices to Turkey's consumer price index and producer prices index are not symmetrical in the long run. The long-term effects of the increase in international oil prices consumer price index and producer prices index are higher than the case where international oil prices show reduction. When compared to ARDL model, NARDL model reveals more significant results that are required to consider the asymmetry effect of international oil prices to consumer price index. Moreover, if crude oil prices rise, both indices are affected differently. Therefore, economic authorities in Turkey should adopt different density monetary policy efforts to respond the rise and fall of global oil prices. Focusing on further loosening the control of oil prices and reducing the cartel valuing power of oil enterprises are among the options together with implementing long-term policies that encourage renewable energy sources.
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    The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun's Law for Eurozone
    (Sosyoekonomi Soc, 2019) Altunoz, Utku
    In this study, the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in the euro area (eurozone) is investigated in the light of Okun's Law by using annual panel data set covering the period 2000-2012. Besides panel error correction and panel integration methods are used to test the link between unemployment and growth rate, unemployment hysteresis was examined by using several non- stationary panel unit root techniques for in all countries included to the study. Findings of this study propose that the Okun's Law is valid. However, the cointegration coefficient is lower than the Okun's coefficient calculated for the United States and other studies which was done for developed countries. The US is included in the analysis as it has the strongest economy in the world. In addition, since growth and unemployment are more volatile in developing countries, they are included in the analysis in order to compare with developed countries.